Author: ShaktiFire
Date: 20:13:17 07/15/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 15, 2000 at 22:16:37, Mark Young wrote: >On July 15, 2000 at 19:34:18, Dann Corbit wrote: > >>On July 15, 2000 at 19:24:29, Ron Norris wrote: >> >>>What will it take to get past GM blockades? >>>Will programmers need more knowledge, more code, cpu strength, >>>devine intervention? What will solve this in the future? >> >>Three or four more plies should probably do it. >> >>There may be a simple algorithmic solution. >> >>That is not the only situation that causes problems for computers, but it's >>probably the best one. > >3 or 4 more plies may be asking too much from the hardware as this amount of ply >increase would take a huge jump in computer power. This problem could better be >sloved with some better understanding in the program, I would think. > >I hear you are good at math, so I will ask...How much more computing power would >it take for Deep Junior to see 4 more plies? That answer depends on the amount of pruning done, and the programs vary in how they implement this. The simple answer looks like this: The effective branching factor is about 3. (Average number of "playable" moves for a position). That means each additional ply requires a factor of 3 in computing power. Doubling every 18 months, a factor of 3 and an additional ply is acquired in 28 months. 4 additional plies would require 112 months = 9 years 4 months.
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