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Subject: Re: About head or tail (was Upon scientific truth - the nature of informati

Author: Daniel Clausen

Date: 03:04:22 07/16/00

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Hi

On July 16, 2000 at 03:34:45, Ed Schröder wrote:

>>posted by Dann Corbit on July 15, 2000 at 20:21:54:
>
>>Simplifying.  I have a penny.
>>I toss it twice.
>>Heads, heads.
>>I toss it twice
>>Heads, heads.
>>I toss it twice
>>Tails, heads.
>>I toss it twice
>>Heads, tails.
>
>>I count them up.
>
>>Heads are stronger than tails.
>
>>My conclusion is faulty.  Why?  Because I did not gather enough data.


Yup, another point which is related to this, is that after claiming
something (like heads are stronger than tails) do the experiment once
more and see whether the claim still holds.

This is best illustrated by an example:
You throw a penny 1'000'000 times and get a certain order of heads
and tails. You could claim now that "if I throw a penny 1'000'000
times, exactly this order occurs". And as a 'proof' you use the
example you just did. If you'd do the same example once more,
you'd (most prolly) see that the claim is not valid.

Or in other words: Claim something and THEN make an experiment to see
whether your claim holds. Not vice versa. [Of course making experiments
and making a claim is not wrong and usually it happens like this. Just
don't think that the claim is already prooven.]

Regards,
 -sargon



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