Author: Amir Ban
Date: 09:04:42 11/12/97
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On November 12, 1997 at 11:43:33, Bas Hamstra wrote: >>In my opinion there are a couple of programs around who >>are able to win such a tournament. You need a strong >>program but also a bit of luck to be at the very top. > >Andreas Mader ran an interesting simulation. > >- A mediocre program cannot win a tournament by luck (< 5% chance) >- The very best program may very well end below the top 3 by pure bad >luck > (50% chance) or even below the top 5. >- Chance that best program wins tournament is only 30% > >So one of the toppers will certainly win, but one particularly tipped >topper willl probably not win. > > >Bas Hamstra. Something wrong with the mathematics here. Surely this depends on what the differences in strength are. If the difference between the best and worst program is 5 ELO points, then they are all basically the same and everyone has equal chances. If the best is 200 ELO points stronger than the 2nd best, then he has virtually 100% chances of winning. Amir
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