Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 13:04:53 11/12/97
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On November 12, 1997 at 12:33:37, Amir Ban wrote: >On November 12, 1997 at 11:43:33, Bas Hamstra wrote: > >>>In my opinion there are a couple of programs around who >>>are able to win such a tournament. You need a strong >>>program but also a bit of luck to be at the very top. >> >>Andreas Mader ran an interesting simulation. >> >>- A mediocre program cannot win a tournament by luck (< 5% chance) >>- The very best program may very well end below the top 3 by pure bad >>luck >> (50% chance) or even below the top 5. >>- Chance that best program wins tournament is only 30% >> >>So one of the toppers will certainly win, but one particularly tipped >>topper willl probably not win. >> >> >>Bas Hamstra. > > >Something wrong with the mathematics here. Surely this depends on what >the differences in strength are. If the difference between the best and >worst program is 5 ELO points, then they are all basically the same and >everyone has equal chances. If the best is 200 ELO points stronger than >the 2nd best, then he has virtually 100% chances of winning. > >Amir Yes, but the basic assumption he made was that there was *not* a 200 point difference between #1 and #2. There wasn't a 200 point difference between #1 and #20 I don't think... which was the subject he was writing about...
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