Author: Amir Ban
Date: 03:40:27 11/13/97
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On November 12, 1997 at 15:36:13, Fernando Villegas wrote: >On November 12, 1997 at 12:33:37, Amir Ban wrote: > >>On November 12, 1997 at 11:43:33, Bas Hamstra wrote: >> >> >>Something wrong with the mathematics here. Surely this depends on what >>the differences in strength are. If the difference between the best and >>worst program is 5 ELO points, then they are all basically the same and >>everyone has equal chances. If the best is 200 ELO points stronger than >>the 2nd best, then he has virtually 100% chances of winning. >> >>Amir > > >Hi Amir: >As I still wait the answers to my interview for CCR :-) Sorry, Fernando. I didn't forget, but I am busy with 5 or 6 minor emergencies now. Only have time to chat here :-) >let me do a >simple question: which is the case for Junior? Is the example of a 200 >points stronger or 100 or 50? What do you think of the rating difference >between Junior ans Virtual, the second best? Or they were esentially >equal but Junios was luckier? Junior was not 200 points above the next one. The alternative, that it was luck, is also not true. Junior was smashed very badly against Virtual, but I got the impression that it is the better all-around player. It was certainly much less inclined to drop points to the lower ranked. To repeat something I said when Deep-Blue strength was discussed, to recognize a strong program, look at its moves (better yet, watch it play). We now have the authority of GM Boris Alterman, who looked at all the Junior games and annotated some, that this was a 2600 or so performance. As for luck, everybody talks about it far too much. A chess game is NOT a random event. When chess programmers talk about luck, they mean that there are some things that they don't want or don't know how to control. Everybody has this problem at some level, but maybe the better programs simply know how to control what their competitors foolishly call luck ? Amir >Best wishes >Fernando
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