Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 11:35:03 07/19/00
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On July 19, 2000 at 13:08:06, pete wrote: >>You're probably correct there, but it's an _educated_ guess of 50-70 ELO per >>doubling of CPU. That means an ELO difference of (estimate 60)*8 = 540 * >>.75(smp loss) = 405 ELO. That's probably too high, but it's probably not off by >>more than a factor of 2 in either direction (WAG). >> > >I don't think this is a reasonable guess at all . > >It probably _is_ an educated guess for comp-comp . > >From all I have seen reported by others or with my own eyes in comp-human >hardware is of much lesser value ( to what extent yet unmeasured ) . Have you actually done some math, or is it just by impressions? Often, impressions can be wrong, but math rarely tells a lie. >I am not sure that say a Junior on a PIII500 will outperform a Junior on a >P233MMX at all by a significant margin in games against humans . I am. On the same time control, you are essentially given double the time because of being almost exactly twice as fast. That will give nearly one more ply (let's say 2/3 of a ply on average). Given enough moves, this will produce an enormous benefit. Let's say that 15% of finding a better move is right, or maybe only 10% (the goes deep studies). We only get 2/3 of this so we have about .067 chance every move of improvement. So what is the chance that we don't make a better decision after n moves? (1 - .067)^n After only ten moves, the odds are 50% that we will have improved our position. After twenty moves the odds are 75%. After 30 moves, the odds are only 13% that we won't have made an improvement. >This is a non-educated guess too for sure but goes together well with what I >have seen so far . There may be a logical basis to your idea, if people know how to play anti-computer chess against it. That is because it will still lose no matter what. But even against anti-computer players, I suspect that seeing deep tactical shots has a better chance to wreck the anti-computer strategy. It would make an interesting study anyway.
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