Author: Chris Carson
Date: 06:12:04 07/20/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 20, 2000 at 08:25:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: [snip] >I am not even sure about the 25%. If DB has a 90% chance of beating every >program there, and I think that is reasonable, then in a 5 round event, the >probability of winning every round is .9 ^ 5 which is 60% for 5 rounds. At >a WMCCC-type event, we go for maybe 10 rounds... that comes out to a 34% chance >of winning all games. > >However, as I have mentioned before, I saw DT forfeit in round one at the last >ACM event, and _still_ it won the tournament, regardless of the hardware others >were using. Show me the data that shows DB can beat today's programs on today's fastest hardware 90% of the time at 40/2. I do not want opinion here, you say 90% of the time, that is a bold statement and I want to see hard data support. DJ 6 on 8x-700 => TPR=2702 97 DB => TPR=2862 A difference of 160 points in favor of 97 DB. That does not imply that 97 DB can beat DJ6 90% of the time. That gives a 72% probability, keeping in mind that 50% means equality, 72-50=22% or about what Ed said! A TPR of +366 points is required for a 90% expectation. You must filp a very weighted coin. :) Best Regards, Chris Carson
This page took 0.08 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.