Author: Jeremiah Penery
Date: 14:31:59 07/20/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 20, 2000 at 09:12:04, Chris Carson wrote: >On July 20, 2000 at 08:25:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >[snip] > >>I am not even sure about the 25%. If DB has a 90% chance of beating every >>program there, and I think that is reasonable, then in a 5 round event, the >>probability of winning every round is .9 ^ 5 which is 60% for 5 rounds. At >>a WMCCC-type event, we go for maybe 10 rounds... that comes out to a 34% chance >>of winning all games. >> >>However, as I have mentioned before, I saw DT forfeit in round one at the last >>ACM event, and _still_ it won the tournament, regardless of the hardware others >>were using. > >Show me the data that shows DB can beat today's programs on >today's fastest hardware 90% of the time at 40/2. I do not want >opinion here, you say 90% of the time, that is a bold statement >and I want to see hard data support. > >DJ 6 on 8x-700 => TPR=2702 >97 DB => TPR=2862 > >A difference of 160 points in favor of 97 DB. That does not imply >that 97 DB can beat DJ6 90% of the time. That gives a 72% probability, >keeping in mind that 50% means equality, 72-50=22% or about what >Ed said! A TPR of +366 points is required for a 90% expectation. >You must filp a very weighted coin. :) TPR != absolute strength. Also Anand/Leko/Piket/etc. != Kasparov When, say, Kasparov has a TPR of 2900 and Anand has one of only 2600 in the same tournament, do you claim that Kasparov is 300 points better? I think the fact is that without seeing more games from DB, we can't really say how strong it is. Nor can we say what kind of TPR Junior would get against Kasparov, if it had played the same 6-game match. It's possible that it could lose all 6 games against Kasparov. If it gets one TPR of 2702 and one of 2400, do you still say it's 2702 strength?
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