Author: Chris Carson
Date: 15:36:25 07/20/00
Go up one level in this thread
My intent is not to mis-quote. So please do not
mis-quote me either. Thanks!
I think Dr Hyatt has proposed two tracks of thinking
to support a claim that 97 DB could beat the leading
programs on the fastest micro's 90% of the time (including
DJ 6 on 8x-700 HW).
1. DT scored 90% against micros from 1988 to 1995. DB is
at least 100 times faster than DT and todays fastest
micro's have not closed the gap (P6-200 was released
in Nov 1997).
Chris Carson believes this is not a good representation of the
DT record. Almost all the games DT played against the micro's
were in reality on 386/486 HW during 1988 and 1994. The only
1995 data that is present for DT is the 95 WCCC which DT lost
to Fritz 3 on a P-90 and drew against Wchess on a P-90. Thus
the 90% claim does not apply to P-90's. Also no record exists
that DT ever played against P-133's or P6-200 (pentium pro's).
If anyone can produce DT records showing a 90% score of DT
against top-5 commercial programs on P-90 HW or faster, I would
consider this a reason to change my view.
Point two that Chris Carson makes is that the 8x-700 HW that
DJ6 ran on is 99.2 times faster than the P-90 (that DT had
problems with) and 450 to 900 times as fast as the 386/486
HW that DT had the 90% score against. Thus in the speed gap
is a lot closer than the Dr. Hyatt picture paints. The NPS
gap may be higher, but that is not a valid comparison.
2. Dr. Hyatt quotes the 36-4 record that the DB team got during a
lab experiment that included a single DB chip running at 1/10
speed. Dr. Hyatt says that shows repetability for the 90%
claim.
Chris Carson says no it does not. The HW used was a P-90 as
reported by Murry Campbell in a later speech. Murry Campbell
was not sure of the s/s, perhaps Fritz3, CM2100, Crafty and
um-I don't remember. Chris Carson believes the DB team did
the experiment, but as Murry said it was not scientific, more
of a curiosity. Since we do not know what SW/Version/conditions
the 36-4 result originated from, the validity of the measure has
to be questioned. Also, the P-90 HW is 99.2 times slower than
the 8x-700, so Chris Carson does not think that a 36-4 result
could be repeated by 97 DB against DJ 6.
Chris Carson's final point is that the 97 DB TPR = 2862 is
160 points higher than DJ 6 TPR of 2702. Thus according
to the ELO rating system (www.fide.com) DB would have a
22% win expectancy. I am not saying that DB should not
be expected to win, just that I do not believe DB would
win 9 out of 10 times against DJ 6. Dr Hyatt says that
these were human vs computer TPR's and not valid for
for comp vs comp. I agree to an extent, however I think
that 90% is a bold claim and not based on valid data.
DB and the DB team did a great job. I do not understand why
some people want to give it more credit than it deserves. It
deserves a lot, 1st get GM norm (DT), 1st to get GM performance
(DT), 1st to beat strongest human in 6 game match. I do not
take anything away. :)
Great yes, beat DJ 6 on 8x-700 HW 90% of the time. No in
my opinion.
Best Regards,
Chris Carson
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