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Subject: Re: when will it be over????

Author: blass uri

Date: 12:25:11 07/27/00

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On July 27, 2000 at 13:17:53, ShaktiFire wrote:

>On July 26, 2000 at 20:27:34, walter irvin wrote:
>
>>deep blue done defeated the best human 1997 .pc programs get faster and better
>>.anyone care to speculate what year it will be when : you can be sure that your
>>pc program can make shredded wheat out of the top ten GM ? my guess is 2010 . by
>>then all GM's  will be out rated by 350 to 500 points .also by that time pc
>>programs will be much stronger than deep blue ,some are close now .
>
>All GMs outrated by 350 to 500 points by 2010?  Way too optimistic.
>By 2010, the programs will get around 5 more plies calculation per
>move.  This should put them around 2800 rating, on par with the top
>human, but not making shredded wheat out of him :-).

I think that the main difference will not be 5 plies.
The main difference will be better software.

Uri



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