Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 23:12:50 07/27/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 28, 2000 at 01:23:55, Dann Corbit wrote: >On July 28, 2000 at 01:15:46, Peter Kappler wrote: > >>On July 28, 2000 at 00:50:09, Ratko V Tomic wrote: >> >>>Well, you're unjust to Thorsten. The rating calculations >>>extract very little data from each game, about 1.58 bits >>>per game (i.e. log2(3)). On the other hand, each ply contains >>>about 5-6 bits of data, or for a 100 ply game you have 500 >>>bits of data produced. Hence the conventional rating tests >>>based on the 3-way game result are very highly inefficient, >>>they keep about 0.3 percent of info produced in game. >> >>Why 5-6 bits per ply? Just enough to represent an appoximate evaluation of the >>position? >> >>> >>>The advantage of ratings to the more efficient information >>>extractors (such as human brain) is that one can compute >>>such rating without even knowing how to play chess. Another >>>advantage is that they're not biased by human subjective judgment >>>(the ratings may manifest other biases which reduce their >>>predictive power, especially when extrapolating to a new opponent >>>from a small number of earlier opponents). A human chess player >>>likely extracts 100 times more info per game than the mechanical >>>rating calculator, and the stronger the player the more info he >>>can extract. >>> >><snip> >> >> >>Well said. I have always felt this way, and seeing the idea explained so >>eloquently is comforting in a strange way. :) > >I don't believe it for a minute. > >I have seen too many times when someone is completely wrong in their assessments >to fall for it. What he says makes more sense if you assume a strong player is making the assessments. I'd venture that a GM can estimate a player's rating to within +/- 200 points by just analyzing one game. I think the success rate would be at least 80%. And if you gave him 4 or 5 games to analyze, I'd probably have more faith in the GM's estimate than the player's actual rating. :) --Peter
This page took 0.01 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.