Author: Mogens Larsen
Date: 12:01:10 07/28/00
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On July 28, 2000 at 14:04:31, Ratko V Tomic wrote: >The ratings and the personal strength judgment are >both models for predicting the outcome of the future >games. For a small number of games the judgment of a >knowlegable human player is clearly better predictor. Maybe, but it's far from certain. >The rating as a predictive model amounts to no more than >essentially saying -- the results so far were A:B, so I >predict that they will most likely remain A:B. That is really >the most simple minded kind of prediction one can make about >anything. That may be true. But making conclusions after observing a handful of games is just plain stupid. >Imagine such kind of predictor applied to 5 coin tosses, where >4 came out heads, 1 tail. A human would predict that on 1000 >tosses the most likely otcome would be 500:500, while the rating >would predict 800:200. If I were to bet who will come closer >on 1000 tosses here, I would pick human every time. A human >observer uses additional information to make much better >prediction (such as observation and knowledge of the degree >of motoric control a person tossing the coin could have). That's nonsense. You don't extrapolate on such a small basis due to the uncertainty of the result. If you want to prove a point try to avoid statistical manipulation. A human estimation _could_ be better, but it's no certainty. >For chess the difference from the coin tossing example is >magnified manifold since the quantity of the extra knowledge >(beyond the mere game result) a good player can apply to the >analysis of a single or a few games is vastly greater. If you had any idea about chess games played by a single program, you would know that it's capable of covering the entire spectrum from brilliancies to blunders. A good player would be unable to fathom all aspects of most toplevel programs within a handful of games. And what measure of comparison would he use. He can't use another chess program, beacuse that would increase the uncertainty as this particular opponent might amplify strength or weaknesses in the program, which capabilities you're estimating. Best wishes... Mogens
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