Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 15:14:13 07/28/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 28, 2000 at 15:58:53, blass uri wrote: >On July 28, 2000 at 15:33:47, Dann Corbit wrote: ><snipped> >> Program Elo + - Games Score Av.Op. Draws >> >> 1 LarsenVB : 2610 186 226 12 79.2 % 2378 25.0 % >> 2 Storm : 2557 223 166 12 58.3 % 2498 33.3 % >> 3 Noonian : 2546 232 144 12 54.2 % 2517 41.7 % >> 4 Ozwald : 2542 166 223 12 41.7 % 2601 33.3 % >> 5 Monik : 2363 214 247 12 62.5 % 2274 8.3 % >> 6 Zephyr : 2317 215 215 12 50.0 % 2317 16.7 % >> 7 TSCP : 2293 180 402 12 83.3 % 2013 0.0 % >> 8 SnailSCP : 2185 214 194 12 62.5 % 2096 25.0 % >> 9 Raffaela : 1893 297 170 12 8.3 % 2310 16.7 % >> 10 Golem01 : 1695 0 0 12 0.0 % 2295 0.0 % > >The elo is simply wrong. The ELO is approximate, and correct within the stated error bars. >The right way to calculate elo based on tournament is simply to assume that the >tournament happen again and again and calculate the limit of the elo rating for >every program when the number of games get closer to infinite Naturally, this is the process that was used. About 100 iterations, if I recall correctly, is what was used to calculate the table. >(you should not >include programs that has 0% or 100%). What is your scientific reason for exclusion of real data? It is just as valid to win or lose all of your games as it is to win only a fraction of them. >In this case you should not count Golem01 because the elo of this program will >always go down(the expected result of golem is more than 0% even if there is a >difference of 1000000 elo). Golem will eventually win or draw. I expect Golem01 verses Raffaela to be about even. >TSCP also deserves at least the same rating as Monik because TSCP got 50% >against Monik and 100% against other players so the rating of TSCP should always >improve when it is behind Monik when the results repeat again. TSCP has played weaker opponents than Monik, according to the calculations. Eventually, the error bars will reduce and I expect that in the end, each ELO positional value will agree with the ordinary contest ranking positional value (points scored, and tie-breaks).
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