Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Fritz is not champ, the match result is under the margin of error

Author: blass uri

Date: 05:07:35 07/29/00

Go up one level in this thread


On July 28, 2000 at 15:45:15, Christophe Theron wrote:

>On July 28, 2000 at 01:05:53, Terry Ripple wrote:
>
>>Used an AMD K6-2, 266Mhz, 64Ram, Ponder off, 16Mb Hash per engine.
>>
>>If anyone cares to see some or all of the games, i will be glad to post them.
>> This match shows how close the strengths are between these two fine engines!
>>
>>Best regards,
>>Terry
>>
>>Blitz:5'  2000
>>
>>
>>1   Fritz 6      158.0/306
>>2   Hiarcs 7.32  148.0/306
>
>
>
>No offense intended Terry, but you cannot say with this match which program is
>the best.
>
>The result of this match is 51.63% in favor of Fritz.
>
>I don't have the typical margin of error for 306 games, but I know that for 400
>games it is +/-2.5% (80% confidence) and +/-2.1% (70% confidence).

using who is better that assumes the binomical distribution I found
loser score 191 and 80% certainty: the required wins are 209=52.3%
loser score 194 and 70% certainty: the required wins are 206=51.5%

so I got
+/-1.5%(70% confidence) and +/-2.3%(80% confidence).
The practical number is different because there are draws and should be lower
than 1.5% for 70% and 2.3% for 80%

Uri



This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.