Author: Albert Silver
Date: 07:12:48 07/29/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 29, 2000 at 03:50:59, Terry Ripple wrote:
>On July 28, 2000 at 15:45:15, Christophe Theron wrote:
>
>>On July 28, 2000 at 01:05:53, Terry Ripple wrote:
>>
>>>Used an AMD K6-2, 266Mhz, 64Ram, Ponder off, 16Mb Hash per engine.
>>>
>>>If anyone cares to see some or all of the games, i will be glad to post them.
>>> This match shows how close the strengths are between these two fine engines!
>>>
>>>Best regards,
>>>Terry
>>>
>>>Blitz:5' 2000
>>>
>>>
>>>1 Fritz 6 158.0/306
>>>2 Hiarcs 7.32 148.0/306
>>
>>
>>
>>No offense intended Terry, but you cannot say with this match which program is
>>the best.
>>
>>The result of this match is 51.63% in favor of Fritz.
>>
>>I don't have the typical margin of error for 306 games, but I know that for 400
>>games it is +/-2.5% (80% confidence) and +/-2.1% (70% confidence).
>>
>>So even if you got this 51.63% with a 400 games match, you couldn't say which
>>program won because 51.63% is between 47.5% and 52.5% (80% confidence). You
>>couldn't even say Fritz is better with 70% confidence.
>>
>>That's the problem with chess matches results... You have to apply some
>>statistic formulas and sometimes you discover that the match does not say which
>>is best...
>>
>>
>>
>> Christophe
>
> Please explain where you may get a margin of error when there isn't a human
>operator making any moves on the chess board? Please, i would like to learn more
>about this!
>
>Regards, Terry
The margin of error he is talking about isn't that of mistakes in the input of
the moves, but of statistical certainty of who the best is. With that many games
you can ascertain which is best but there is a margin of error, and that is the
margin of error he is talking about. Fritz may have won the match but in order
to say it is the best you either need to factor in the statistical margin of
error or play more games.
Albert Silver
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