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Subject: Re: Fritz is not champ, the match result is under the margin of error

Author: Chessfun

Date: 07:48:35 07/29/00

Go up one level in this thread


On July 29, 2000 at 10:12:48, Albert Silver wrote:

>On July 29, 2000 at 03:50:59, Terry Ripple wrote:
>
>>On July 28, 2000 at 15:45:15, Christophe Theron wrote:
>>
>>>On July 28, 2000 at 01:05:53, Terry Ripple wrote:
>>>
>>>>Used an AMD K6-2, 266Mhz, 64Ram, Ponder off, 16Mb Hash per engine.
>>>>
>>>>If anyone cares to see some or all of the games, i will be glad to post them.
>>>> This match shows how close the strengths are between these two fine engines!
>>>>
>>>>Best regards,
>>>>Terry
>>>>
>>>>Blitz:5'  2000
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>1   Fritz 6      158.0/306
>>>>2   Hiarcs 7.32  148.0/306
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>No offense intended Terry, but you cannot say with this match which program is
>>>the best.
>>>
>>>The result of this match is 51.63% in favor of Fritz.
>>>
>>>I don't have the typical margin of error for 306 games, but I know that for 400
>>>games it is +/-2.5% (80% confidence) and +/-2.1% (70% confidence).
>>>
>>>So even if you got this 51.63% with a 400 games match, you couldn't say which
>>>program won because 51.63% is between 47.5% and 52.5% (80% confidence). You
>>>couldn't even say Fritz is better with 70% confidence.
>>>
>>>That's the problem with chess matches results... You have to apply some
>>>statistic formulas and sometimes you discover that the match does not say which
>>>is best...
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>    Christophe
>>
>> Please explain where you may get a margin of error when there isn't a human
>>operator making any moves on the chess board? Please, i would like to learn more
>>about this!
>>
>>Regards, Terry
>
>The margin of error he is talking about isn't that of mistakes in the input of
>the moves, but of statistical certainty of who the best is. With that many games
>you can ascertain which is best but there is a margin of error, and that is the
>margin of error he is talking about. Fritz may have won the match but in order
>to say it is the best you either need to factor in the statistical margin of
>error or play more games.
>
>                                    Albert Silver


I am not sure but 16 mb of hash sounds too much for a 5 min game. Anyway which
version of Fritz is this. 6a?, light?, as originally I see Terry posting about
Light.

Thanks.







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