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Subject: Re: Fritz is not champ, the match result is under the margin of error

Author: Wayne Lowrance

Date: 08:06:27 07/29/00

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On July 28, 2000 at 15:45:15, Christophe Theron wrote:

>On July 28, 2000 at 01:05:53, Terry Ripple wrote:
>
>>Used an AMD K6-2, 266Mhz, 64Ram, Ponder off, 16Mb Hash per engine.
>>
>>If anyone cares to see some or all of the games, i will be glad to post them.
>> This match shows how close the strengths are between these two fine engines!
>>
>>Best regards,
>>Terry
>>
>>Blitz:5'  2000
>>
>>
>>1   Fritz 6      158.0/306
>>2   Hiarcs 7.32  148.0/306
>
>
>
>No offense intended Terry, but you cannot say with this match which program is
>the best.
>
>The result of this match is 51.63% in favor of Fritz.
>
>I don't have the typical margin of error for 306 games, but I know that for 400
>games it is +/-2.5% (80% confidence) and +/-2.1% (70% confidence).
>
>So even if you got this 51.63% with a 400 games match, you couldn't say which
>program won because 51.63% is between 47.5% and 52.5% (80% confidence). You
>couldn't even say Fritz is better with 70% confidence.
>
>That's the problem with chess matches results... You have to apply some
>statistic formulas and sometimes you discover that the match does not say which
>is best...
>
>
>
>    Christophe

Your correct about the stat's Christophe, but I disagree with your conculusion.
lf in a prize fight the underdog beats the champion, he is _champion_ even tho
they could fight again from here to there and he would never again beat the
former champion. The point is if you Win a _match_ that makes you the champ if
in fact he was the champion.

Also if Kaspi and Anand were to play for the world championship and Anand won he
would be the new champion despite the fact if they  previously played a similiar
number of games. Would not the same Math apply more or less ?

Wayne



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