Author: Peter Kappler
Date: 10:39:40 07/30/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 30, 2000 at 02:03:07, Ricardo Gibert wrote: >What do you think would be the result of the following thought experiment: > >You get 5 games played by a player X rated 1500 against 5 different opponents. >Their ratings range from 1300 to 1700. Now hand these games to a GM, but don't >tell him the rating of player X nor tell the ratings of his opponent. Now ask >the GM what he thinks is the playing strength of player X. > >I don't know about you, but my estimate of the rating could wind up being almost >anything. I would have no point of reference for judging their playing strength. >I would encounter long series of blunders by both sides in these games and would >not have a clue about how to assign a number representing how strong player X >is. I can't tell the difference between a 1400 and a 1600 rated player with any >kind of reliability. They both get bad ideas, but one may get "better" bad ideas >than the other. How do you rate that? > >The problem is perhaps I'm too high rated (2200+). Maybe if I was another >C-player I could make a better estimate! Judging a peer may be more accurate? >But then perhaps ego, 20-20 hindsight, etc. might come into play and the >C-player would still be way off. I think a GM would have a tougher time than I >would. How does a C-player think? That's a toughy. > >Impressions are a poor yardstick for estimating anything. An GM could be on the >money, but could also be way off. His estimate would certainly vary with his >mood, how much rest he got, rust, etc. just like his playing strength varies for >the same reasons. > >There is no substitute for an objective determination. You make a good point, and I do agree that the GM would struggle in the scenario you described. But, I'm not sure why I handicapped the GM. He should start with the same information as ELO -- the rating of the opponent! So I apologize for presenting a moving target, but I do believe that if the GM is given the rating of the opponent, he will calculate a better performance rating over a small number of games. That's it, no more concessions - I will stand firm, now. :) --Peter
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