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Subject: Re: Chessbase will win!

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 17:28:38 08/15/00

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On August 15, 2000 at 15:17:53, Marcus Kaestner wrote:

>>>
>>>no way. you will see it.
>>>
>>>marcus
>>
>>I do not know the future.
>
>nobody knows the future, but some people have proofed to be able to predict
>pretty good.
>
>>Chessbase can win and can lose.
>
>sure, but the chances for winning are much lower than for loosing.
>
>>
>>I am sure shredder,Rebel and tiger are better but the same is also for some
>>chessbase engines.
>
>be sure that the improvement of the chessbase engines lay far behind rebel or
>shredder for example.
>
>>
>>You also cannot be sure that the best program is going to win.
>>In WMCCC of 1997 Junior won convincingly and Junior was not the best program.
>
>you can never be sure, but take it as a prediction that the winning program in
>london is minimum 50(!) elo better than fritz 6a.
>
>>
>>How do you know before the games that chessbase is not going to win?
>
>because the elo-gap is too big.
>besides that you need luck.
>no question.
>but there are operators who FORCE the luck regurlarely because they do a perfect
>preparation, a perfect job each time.
>
>remember last year. everyone was sceptic when i predicted shredder to win the
>title. now everyone is sceptic when i predict chessbase NOT to win the title.
>we will see...

Yes, it was a surprise.
How did you guess?

It is clear that shredder was not the best because other programs like Ferret
and the chessbase programs had hardware advantage that could give them more than
50 elo and the difference between shredder4 and the top programs of that time on
equal hardware is not bigger than 50 elo(for example the difference between
shredder4 and Fritz5.32 is probably less than 50 elo).

Do you believe that stefan forced luck by good opening prepration?

Did stefan planned the openings to push the opponents to positions that they do
not understand?

Uri



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