Author: Ricardo Gibert
Date: 09:12:39 08/22/00
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On August 22, 2000 at 11:10:33, Peter Skinner wrote: >This is how I feel Round 4 will come about. > >Fritz - Junior : 1/2 - 1/2 >Rebel - Shredder : 0 - 1 >Crafty - Nimzo : 0 - 1 >Chess Tiger - Insomniac : 1/2 - 1/2 >SOS - Francesca : 1 - 0 >Diep - ZChess : 0 - 1 >XiniX - Pacque Expert : 1/2 - 1/2 > >Interesting round I feel, and should clutter up the top, just like every year. Some very gutsy predictions! For 2 reasons: 1) Decisive games between comps occur more than twice as often as do draws. Therefore, even if you are not sure which comp is better, you do better by randomly picking one as the predicted winner e.g. so far only abot 14% of the games have been drawn. A prediction of a draw really bucks the odds unless...you've got some kind of inside information?? 2) In the games you do predict a decisive outcome, you bet against black in 4 out of 5 cases. In the latter rounds of a swiss, the games are more evenly matched than at the beginning, so it would seem it is better to bet on white. Based on these 2 reasons, it is better to bet on White in all of the above pairings, but don't ask me to put my money where my mouth is :-O If your predictions do turn out to be correct, then obviously you had the games fixed! ;-)
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