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Subject: Yes we sure do...some numbers

Author: Gian-Carlo Pascutto

Date: 14:44:43 08/22/00

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On August 22, 2000 at 16:21:36, Timothy J. Frohlick wrote:

>Dear CCC,
>
>Just think boys and girls, in less than a year from now we will have the >Pentium
>Four machines that run at 1400 MHz with a 400 Mhz bus and a data throughput of
>3.2 GBytes per second.  Now you know that with all that speed we can have
>programs with enormous databases.  Do we want the programs for analysis only or
>do we want to lose to them 100% of the time?

Some nice numbers about crazyhouse (aka drop-chess).

branching factor = +- 102

estimated depth needed for dominating human players (3 0 games):
9 ply

raw alpha-beta nodes needed per move:
102^5 + 102^4 - 1 = 11149051247 nodes

current program speed: 60Knps on an AMD-K6-400
assuming 5 seconds per move (normal for 3 0):
300000 nodes

Todays (common) computers are thus 37163 times too slow.

Assuming that speed doubles each 18 months, we
need 15,18 x 18 months = 273 months = 23 years.

So it will take at least 23 years before computers
reach a level comparable to humans for crazyhouse
chess.

This is of course an estimation, ignoring forward
pruning and other alpha-beta enhancements, but it
gives a nice impression why we still need faster
hardware ;)

--
GCP



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