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Subject: Re: Yes we sure do...some numbers

Author: Charles Milton Ling

Date: 15:25:48 08/22/00

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On August 22, 2000 at 17:44:43, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote:

>On August 22, 2000 at 16:21:36, Timothy J. Frohlick wrote:
>
>>Dear CCC,
>>
>>Just think boys and girls, in less than a year from now we will have the >Pentium
>>Four machines that run at 1400 MHz with a 400 Mhz bus and a data throughput of
>>3.2 GBytes per second.  Now you know that with all that speed we can have
>>programs with enormous databases.  Do we want the programs for analysis only or
>>do we want to lose to them 100% of the time?
>
>Some nice numbers about crazyhouse (aka drop-chess).
>
>branching factor = +- 102
>
>estimated depth needed for dominating human players (3 0 games):
>9 ply
>
>raw alpha-beta nodes needed per move:
>102^5 + 102^4 - 1 = 11149051247 nodes
>
>current program speed: 60Knps on an AMD-K6-400
>assuming 5 seconds per move (normal for 3 0):
>300000 nodes
>
>Todays (common) computers are thus 37163 times too slow.
>
>Assuming that speed doubles each 18 months, we
>need 15,18 x 18 months = 273 months = 23 years.
>
>So it will take at least 23 years before computers
>reach a level comparable to humans for crazyhouse
>chess.
>
>This is of course an estimation, ignoring forward
>pruning and other alpha-beta enhancements, but it
>gives a nice impression why we still need faster
>hardware ;)
>
>--
>GCP

All of this is true, but do we need bughouse?  (No offence meant, of course!)

Charley



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