Author: Charles Milton Ling
Date: 15:25:48 08/22/00
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On August 22, 2000 at 17:44:43, Gian-Carlo Pascutto wrote: >On August 22, 2000 at 16:21:36, Timothy J. Frohlick wrote: > >>Dear CCC, >> >>Just think boys and girls, in less than a year from now we will have the >Pentium >>Four machines that run at 1400 MHz with a 400 Mhz bus and a data throughput of >>3.2 GBytes per second. Now you know that with all that speed we can have >>programs with enormous databases. Do we want the programs for analysis only or >>do we want to lose to them 100% of the time? > >Some nice numbers about crazyhouse (aka drop-chess). > >branching factor = +- 102 > >estimated depth needed for dominating human players (3 0 games): >9 ply > >raw alpha-beta nodes needed per move: >102^5 + 102^4 - 1 = 11149051247 nodes > >current program speed: 60Knps on an AMD-K6-400 >assuming 5 seconds per move (normal for 3 0): >300000 nodes > >Todays (common) computers are thus 37163 times too slow. > >Assuming that speed doubles each 18 months, we >need 15,18 x 18 months = 273 months = 23 years. > >So it will take at least 23 years before computers >reach a level comparable to humans for crazyhouse >chess. > >This is of course an estimation, ignoring forward >pruning and other alpha-beta enhancements, but it >gives a nice impression why we still need faster >hardware ;) > >-- >GCP All of this is true, but do we need bughouse? (No offence meant, of course!) Charley
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