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Subject: Re: I don't think wmcc results is enough reliable, isn't it?

Author: Alvaro Polo

Date: 00:16:06 08/25/00

Go up one level in this thread


On August 25, 2000 at 02:35:18, Ricardo Gibert wrote:

>On August 25, 2000 at 01:17:06, Alvaro Polo wrote:
>
>>On August 24, 2000 at 23:17:53, Bruce Moreland wrote:
>>
>>>On August 24, 2000 at 22:48:47, Michael Fuhrmann wrote:
>>>
>>>>On August 24, 2000 at 22:01:39, Bruce Moreland wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On August 24, 2000 at 18:53:53, Eran wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>Different chess programs use different processor speed, and the results may not
>>>>>>be fair. If Junior uses Pentium III 1000 Mhz instead of 700 Mhz, Junior might be
>>>>>>a bit stronger and belong to the group of top chess programs, Shredder, Fritz,
>>>>>>and Nimzo. I assume that if all chess programs use the same processor speed
>>>>>>exactly, for instance Pentium III 1000 Mhz, the wmcc results will be enough
>>>>>>reliable and fair. Do you agree with it?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Eran
>>>>>
>>>>>As for "fair", this is not a uniform platform tournament.  If you do a uniform
>>>>>platform tournament, you get "fair".  If you go to one that isn't, and you
>>>>>expect "fair", it's better to stay home, because it won't be.  It's not uniform
>>>>>platform.
>>>>>
>>>>>If you expect "reliable", even in a uniform platform tournament, you aren't
>>>>>going to get that, either.  If you deduce a perfectly accurate rating for each
>>>>>participant, and simulate the tournament a few dozen times, you'll get wildly
>>>>>different results.  The "best" program won't win every time.  The "best" program
>>>>>might not even finish in the top half.
>>>>>
>>>>>bruce
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>Sounds like there's no good reason for holding the event at all, since the
>>>>result doesn't tell us anything meaningful.
>>>
>>>Right.  There isn't a reason to hold the World Series, the Olympics, the World
>>>Cup, or any other sporting event, either.
>>>
>>
>>It is curious what you say. In plain chess (not computer chess), if there is a
>>tournement where Kasparov participates in, you can expect him to win. Sometimes
>>he wont, of course, but I don't think it is probable that he won't finish on the
>>top half. It looks like chess is much more reliable than computer chess. I
>>wonder why.
>
>Kasparov is rated 2849 by fide while the number 2 player Kramnik is rated 2770.
>That is a 79 point rating difference. The difference is even greater when you
>compare him with other players, so it is not surprising at all that he wins as
>often as he does. It's not like they are miscalculating his rating. It reflects
>precisely what he has accomplished. In computer chess, the top programs are
>bunched very closely together. There isn't one program that can dominate the
>others, so their ratings reflect this also.
>

That is the question. Why do elos among chessplayers differ more than elos among
chessprograms? I would think that, given that more people play chess than
program chess, variability among top programmers talents would be greater.

Alvaro

>>
>>Alvaro
>>
>>>Unless of course you don't regard them as scientific experiments intended to
>>>produce statistically reliable data.
>>>
>>>bruce



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