Author: Amir Ban
Date: 16:56:36 08/25/00
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On August 25, 2000 at 16:52:39, Bruce Moreland wrote: >On August 25, 2000 at 16:38:03, walter irvin wrote: > >>is shredder that good or is it luck or just a combination of the two .i read a >>post by bruce that said 3 out of the last 4 .that is too good to be luck .so i >>must ask what does STEFAN know that every body else dont >>know???????????????????????????? its almost like shredder is getting bobby >>fischer like results .i never bought shredder ,but i guess now it is a must .its >>obviously the strongest you can get . > >Computer chess is like poker. Of course it's luck, it's always luck, when you >talk about short tournaments like this. But that's no reason to discount the >result. The result is worth exactly what the result in these tournament is >always worth. > >bruce Here is where luck comes in: When the Nimzo-Shredder went into the rook endgame both programs grossly overvalued white's advantage (Nimzo around +2.5, Shredder around +2), although the endgame is almost impossible to win. For Nimzo, it was the reason it went into this drawn position. For Shredder, the fact that it was too pessimistic about its chances did not matter. In a different game, the misevaluation would have mattered a great deal. Likewise for Tiger-Junior. Tiger elected to go into an endgame with a big plus score, but the endgame could at best be drawn. Junior overvalued its advantage, but in this position it didn't matter. You are lucky when you are not bitten by your misevaluations, while your opponents are. Amir
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