Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:59:44 08/31/00
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On August 31, 2000 at 15:41:39, stuart taylor wrote: >If you had D.O. 200 plies brute force for every move, I think there can be no >question about it, that GM will always lose! If one time it was a draw, the GM >could be justly proud of himself, even if he was world champion. >I can't imagine how much mhz that would be, though. >S.Taylor (maybe 1 with 6-700 naughts). A trillion terahertz computer could come nowhere close to 200 plies. Probably closer to 20. Consider this little list: White(1): perft 2 total moves=400 time=0.00 White(1): perft 3 total moves=8902 time=0.01 White(1): perft 4 total moves=197281 time=0.29 White(1): perft 5 total moves=4865609 time=6.60 White(1): perft 6 total moves=119060324 time=164.04 Draw yourself a graph. Imagine what time looks like at 20. That search would play infallible chess, but most real searches don't work like that. They examine the square root of the node counts. So work out about what it will look like at 20, and take the square root. You will still find that the square root of a truly ridiculous number is still a ridiculous number. With massive pruning, it might get deeper, but then it would be open to errors like null move zugzwang situations, etc. Dann Corbit makes a prophecy: "Computers will *never* (and I do mean never, ever, ever no matter how many years forward -- millions of years, billions of years, trillions of years) fully examine 200 plies forward at tournament time controls of 40/2."
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