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Subject: Re: The total number of possible chess positions? WT

Author: Alvaro Polo

Date: 02:58:11 09/01/00

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On August 31, 2000 at 16:41:22, Uri Blass wrote:

>On August 31, 2000 at 15:54:16, Frederic Friedel wrote:
>
>>On August 31, 2000 at 15:01:18, Vincent Lejeune wrote:
>>
>>>If I remember well I red in a magasin some years ago that there is 10^80
>>>possible positions and there is 10^120 different playable games (no
>>>demonstration was given).
>>
>>There are 10^112 possible games lasting 40 moves. This is considerably more than
>>the 10^82 elementary particles in the universe. It is clear that, for principle
>>reasons, all possible games will not be reconstructed (generated and stored) in
>>the course of this universe.
>>
>>But we don’t need to do that in order to solve chess (in the Thompson endgame
>>sense). The number of possible legal chess positions is far smaller: between
>>10^53 and 10^55.
>
>The number of possible legal positions is really smaller and my counting program
>found that it is smaller.
>
>3.7010630121207222927827147741452119115968e46 is the upper bound that my program
>found(not considering side to move and castling or en passant rule).
>Ratko v.tomic improved it to a smaller bound but not clearly smaller.
>
>I guess that the real number of positions is between  10^43 and 10^45.
>
>It is possible to get an estimate for this number by the following steps.
>1)counting the exact number of pseudo-legal positions(I will call it x).
>2)generating 10000 of random pseudo-legal positions.
>3)counting the number of the real legal positions out of the 10,000 pseudo-legal
>positions(I will call it L).
>4)get the estimate x*L/10000.
>
>We must be careful that x will not be too big(otherwise we may get a very small
>number in step 3 and in this case the estimate cannot be trusted).
>An extreme case is the case when L=0 and the estimate in step 4 is 0.
>
>If we get L>30 we can know that we found a good estimate.
>
>This is a hard work to do it and I am not going to try it unless I find somebody
>to pay me for this job(at least 10000$).
>Checking the 10000 positions is a hard work(If I need 6 minutes to decide for
>every position if it is legal then I need 1000 hours only to do step 3).
>
>I do not believe that I will find somebody who wants to pay for this job so I am
>not going to try to do this job.
>
>Uri


What I would like to know is how many of the possible positions are "reasonable"
positions. IE, I assume that the vast majority of the possible positions are
"crazy" positions that wouldn't arise in a chess game or positions where one
side has huge advantage over the other (for example, white having 8 pieces
against black lone king). The "unreasonable" positions could be ignored, and
perhaps the new number is computable within a "reasonable" time.

Alvaro



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