Author: Walter Koroljow
Date: 10:30:50 09/08/00
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On September 08, 2000 at 00:28:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On September 07, 2000 at 12:34:40, Walter Koroljow wrote: > >>Thank you for the link. It turns out that Zugzwang ran on a multi-processor >>Cray! Therefore, I have excluded it from consideration. >> >>That leaves 29 program/PC combinations that played 157 games (+73,=57,-27) for a >>score of 101.5-55.5 (64.6%) against opposition with an average rating of 2415. >>A single program with a rating of 2541 would be expected to achieve this score. >>Recalculating the confidence statistics, we get only minor changes: >> >> 95% Confidence Interval >>Spread of Ratings for Average Rating >>----------------- ----------------------- >> 0 2502-2579 >> 200 2502-2584 >> 400 2503-2595. >> >>The conclusion stays the same: There is considerable confidence that the >>average rating of the programs in Chris' data running on 200MHz or faster >>PC-based computers is in the 2500's. >> >>Cheers, >> >>Walter > > >You might conclude that if you look only at the _results_. But if you look >at the _games_, you get a significantly different "picture". A GM simply won't >get beaten by a 1800 player. A computer falls into such losses. A GM doesn't >play like a genius in 2 games and then like a 1600 in 1. The picture if one looks at the games seems very complicated to me. Some recent examples: DJ6's horrid ...Ne4xNd2?? against Kramnik; FritzSSS crushing Van der Doel (2537) in 15 moves; and De Vreugt (2498) demonstrating complete ignorance (9.c4??) of how to play against computers. I can't begin to generalize from these and the other few anecdotes I am aware of. But you have had many years of observing human-computer play. Have you observed systematic patterns or trends? And what lies in the future? The statistics indicate that computers have done well. Some things could change this picture. On one extreme (low effort), the De Vreugt example shows that humans could do better with some simple instruction. On the other extreme (improbably large effort) humans could do even better if there was, say, an anti-computer opening literature to rival our present opening literature. From your observations, have humans been able to improve against computers by much? Do GMs _care_ to improve against computers? Walter
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