Author: Jason Williamson
Date: 09:16:51 09/23/00
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On September 22, 2000 at 17:36:32, Stephen Ham wrote: >Dear Terry, > >Jeroen is correct. One should use database statistics only as a very general >guide. > >Consider this: Somebody plays a tricky new move and wins with it. Others >discover the tricky new move and win with it too. Let's assume that after a >period of time, the line acumulates 9 wins. However, at some point, an opponent >finally busts the line because it was not intrinsically sound. So the fact is, >the line is no good, but the statistics say that out of 10 games played, it won >90% of the time. So Terry, what are you going to believe, the statistics or the >truth? > >Database statistics would thus lead one to belive that good lines are "bad" and >bad lines are "good". Instead, my advice, Terry, is to forget about what that >statistics say and play openings that you both think are good/best and you feel >comfortable playing. > >Good luck, Terry. > >Stephen The above doesn't really hold, since if enough peopple (read 9) think its good for the tricky move and lose with it, the database will suddenly be at 50%. So eventually, the refuted move will correct it self. This of course assumes you update your database. On the other hand, nothing will match your own eye, and a good opening book on the variations you want to study. JW
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