Author: Aaron Tay
Date: 10:40:57 09/23/00
Go up one level in this thread
On September 23, 2000 at 12:16:51, Jason Williamson wrote: >On September 22, 2000 at 17:36:32, Stephen Ham wrote: > >>Dear Terry, >> >>Jeroen is correct. One should use database statistics only as a very general >>guide. >> >>Consider this: Somebody plays a tricky new move and wins with it. Others >>discover the tricky new move and win with it too. Let's assume that after a >>period of time, the line acumulates 9 wins. However, at some point, an opponent >>finally busts the line because it was not intrinsically sound. So the fact is, >>the line is no good, but the statistics say that out of 10 games played, it won >>90% of the time. So Terry, what are you going to believe, the statistics or the >>truth? >> >>Database statistics would thus lead one to belive that good lines are "bad" and >>bad lines are "good". Instead, my advice, Terry, is to forget about what that >>statistics say and play openings that you both think are good/best and you feel >>comfortable playing. >> >>Good luck, Terry. >> >>Stephen > >The above doesn't really hold, since if enough peopple (read 9) think its good >for the tricky move and lose with it, the database will suddenly be at 50%. So >eventually, the refuted move will correct it self. This of course assumes you >update your database. > >On the other hand, nothing will match your own eye, and a good opening book on >the variations you want to study. > > >JW Good point, but if you are talking about top level 2600+ games, I doubt GMs get fooled so easily. Chances are most of them will see the truth espically if they have the lastest game that shows the refrution... Also, Stephen Ham's theory only applies if you are talking about top level player such that players are all up to date on the lastest theory, otherwise it's likely that at club level, I would still venture the move that won 90% espically if i'm aware my opponent is not booked up and the move that refuted the line is really difficult to find..
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