Author: Albert Silver
Date: 16:55:13 09/23/00
Go up one level in this thread
On September 23, 2000 at 12:16:51, Jason Williamson wrote:
>On September 22, 2000 at 17:36:32, Stephen Ham wrote:
>
>>Dear Terry,
>>
>>Jeroen is correct. One should use database statistics only as a very general
>>guide.
>>
>>Consider this: Somebody plays a tricky new move and wins with it. Others
>>discover the tricky new move and win with it too. Let's assume that after a
>>period of time, the line acumulates 9 wins. However, at some point, an opponent
>>finally busts the line because it was not intrinsically sound. So the fact is,
>>the line is no good, but the statistics say that out of 10 games played, it won
>>90% of the time. So Terry, what are you going to believe, the statistics or the
>>truth?
>>
>>Database statistics would thus lead one to belive that good lines are "bad" and
>>bad lines are "good". Instead, my advice, Terry, is to forget about what that
>>statistics say and play openings that you both think are good/best and you feel
>>comfortable playing.
>>
>>Good luck, Terry.
>>
>>Stephen
>
>The above doesn't really hold, since if enough peopple (read 9) think its good
>for the tricky move and lose with it, the database will suddenly be at 50%. So
>eventually, the refuted move will correct it self.
Not unless the players don't keep their databases up-to-date.
Albert Silver
>This of course assumes you
>update your database.
>
>On the other hand, nothing will match your own eye, and a good opening book on
>the variations you want to study.
>
>
>JW
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