Author: Albert Silver
Date: 21:17:48 09/23/00
Go up one level in this thread
On September 24, 2000 at 00:08:55, Jason Williamson wrote:
>On September 23, 2000 at 19:55:13, Albert Silver wrote:
>
>>On September 23, 2000 at 12:16:51, Jason Williamson wrote:
>>
>>>On September 22, 2000 at 17:36:32, Stephen Ham wrote:
>>>
>>>>Dear Terry,
>>>>
>>>>Jeroen is correct. One should use database statistics only as a very general
>>>>guide.
>>>>
>>>>Consider this: Somebody plays a tricky new move and wins with it. Others
>>>>discover the tricky new move and win with it too. Let's assume that after a
>>>>period of time, the line acumulates 9 wins. However, at some point, an opponent
>>>>finally busts the line because it was not intrinsically sound. So the fact is,
>>>>the line is no good, but the statistics say that out of 10 games played, it won
>>>>90% of the time. So Terry, what are you going to believe, the statistics or the
>>>>truth?
>>>>
>>>>Database statistics would thus lead one to belive that good lines are "bad" and
>>>>bad lines are "good". Instead, my advice, Terry, is to forget about what that
>>>>statistics say and play openings that you both think are good/best and you feel
>>>>comfortable playing.
>>>>
>>>>Good luck, Terry.
>>>>
>>>>Stephen
>>>
>>>The above doesn't really hold, since if enough peopple (read 9) think its good
>>>for the tricky move and lose with it, the database will suddenly be at 50%. So
>>>eventually, the refuted move will correct it self.
>>
>>Not unless the players don't keep their databases up-to-date.
>>
>> Albert Silver
>>
>>>This of course assumes you
>>>update your database.
>>>
>>>On the other hand, nothing will match your own eye, and a good opening book on
>>>the variations you want to study.
>>>
>>>
>>>JW
>
>Hmm I think I said that one line below where you put your answer.
>
>JW
I thought maybe you hadn't noticed it which is why I repeated it. If the players
update their databases and see the refutation, why on earth should the stats
eventually balance out?
Albert Silver
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