Author: Uri Blass
Date: 16:03:28 10/30/00
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On October 30, 2000 at 16:40:17, Timothy J. Frohlick wrote: >On October 30, 2000 at 16:27:10, Marc van Hal wrote: > >>Looking back at his older battles for the championship he may surprise the world by winning all games left. > >Marc, > >Yes, that could happen. The odds of it happening are, however, 1,000,000 to 1 . The odds are better than 1 to 1000000 I assume that the chances of kasparov to win with black are 5% for every game and the chances to win with white are 20% In this case the chances for kasparov to win all the games are 0.05*0.05*0.2 and it is 1 to 2000 I believe that the chances are better because the events are not independent. a small part of the 5% for kasparov to win with black is because kramnik may be sick in the next game and in this case there is a good chance that kramnik is going to be sick also in the next games. I guess that the chances of kasparov to win the next 3 games is 1 to 1000. I remember that winning 3 games in a row happened in the past when karpov won 3 games in a row against kasparov to go back from 9.5-6.5 to 9.5-9.5 Uri
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