Author: Uri Blass
Date: 22:49:32 10/30/00
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On October 30, 2000 at 23:01:13, Ratko V Tomic wrote: >> In this case the chances for kasparov to win all the games are >> 0.05*0.05*0.2 and it is 1 to 2000 >> > >Kasparov doesn't need to win all 3 to keep the title, I know it. I only responded to previous post that what about the chances of kasparov to win the last 3 games. I agree that winning 2 games and drawing one is easier. The probability to get 2.5 out of 3 or 3 our of 3 is 0.05*0.05*0.2+0.05*0.95*0.2*2+0.05*0.05*0.8=0.0215 and I guess it is slightly more than it because the events are not independent so I give kasparov 2.5% to do it. >but at least 2 wins and 1 draw. Also the a priori odds >should be based on rating, adjusted perhaps with the >current match results. The rating of kasparov is higher but I know that kramnik has a positive result against kasparov so I assumed the probability for both players is the same. 20% for white and 5% for black is only a guess and I know that at this level most of the games are drawn. I do not know the exact statistics. The statistics of the match say 11 draws out of 13 games that is more than 75% so maybe it is better to assume bigger probability for a draw but on the other side kasparov must win so he may play in a way that reduce the probability of draws in the last games. Uri
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