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Subject: Re: Tragedy

Author: Bruce Moreland

Date: 10:43:44 11/04/00

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On November 04, 2000 at 12:03:29, Daniel Chancey wrote:

>I was trying to find out how CMSilver fares against the best of the best.
>Clearly it isn't doing well.
>
>Castle2000

It might not be doing well, but it could have been an accident.  Your matches
are short enough that if it had won like two more games in the "blowout" match
you wouldn't be so sure.

You have another blowout match going on now though, so it's looking a little
more likely that the version isn't as good as the others in self-play.

The way you are doing matches you can probably score three ways - draw, win,
blowout.  If you start making decisions based upon this you can make a mistake
if the matches are too short to prove that the score is real.  Even a long match
can't prove that the score is real, if the score is close.

It's possible to take the score of a match, and turn it into a statement such as
"There is an 85% chance that version A is at least 20 Elo points better than
version B."

If that appeals to you, you may want to learn something about statistics.  I
would tell you how to do it, but I don't know how.  If chess didn't have any
draws it would be easier to do.

bruce




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