Author: Uri Blass
Date: 12:05:54 11/04/00
Go up one level in this thread
On November 04, 2000 at 14:10:47, walter irvin wrote: >On November 04, 2000 at 13:43:44, Bruce Moreland wrote: > >>On November 04, 2000 at 12:03:29, Daniel Chancey wrote: >> >>>I was trying to find out how CMSilver fares against the best of the best. >>>Clearly it isn't doing well. >>> >>>Castle2000 >> >>It might not be doing well, but it could have been an accident. Your matches >>are short enough that if it had won like two more games in the "blowout" match >>you wouldn't be so sure. >> >>You have another blowout match going on now though, so it's looking a little >>more likely that the version isn't as good as the others in self-play. >> >>The way you are doing matches you can probably score three ways - draw, win, >>blowout. If you start making decisions based upon this you can make a mistake >>if the matches are too short to prove that the score is real. Even a long match >>can't prove that the score is real, if the score is close. >> >>It's possible to take the score of a match, and turn it into a statement such as >>"There is an 85% chance that version A is at least 20 Elo points better than >>version B." >> >>If that appeals to you, you may want to learn something about statistics. I >>would tell you how to do it, but I don't know how. If chess didn't have any >>draws it would be easier to do. >> >>bruce >thats easy just dont count draws .play till some one wins a certain number of >games .then you can say well A wins 75 games B wins 25 ect It is not so simple because of some reasons: 1)If you want to say that version A is at least 20 Elo better than version B then you have to count draws because 20-0 with no draws suggest that A is at least 20 elo better than B when 20-0 with 1000 draws suggest that A is not at least 20 Elo better than B 2)The probability to win with white is not the same as the probability to win with black. 3)Learning can change things and it is possible that version A is at least 20 elo better than B after 10000 games but before playing it is worse than B. Uri
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