Author: Paulo Soares
Date: 12:46:04 11/06/00
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On November 06, 2000 at 01:55:10, Howard Exner wrote: >On November 05, 2000 at 20:45:31, Paulo Soares wrote: > >>On November 05, 2000 at 15:55:16, Howard Exner wrote: >> >>> >>>Here is a cut and paste from ChessWire #57 (Kasparov Chess) >>> >>>Q: With the increasing power of computers, when do you think an unbeatable >>>computer chess program will appear? >>> >>>A: Shay Bushinsky answers: >>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer >>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a >>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail >>>in an eight game match against the strongest human. >>> >>>I always take special note when a chess computer authority discloses their >>>projections on how chess computers will play in the future. Some follow up >>>questions ... >>> >>>- What sort of hardware would this be? >>>- Is the Junior team working on a massive multi-processor project? >>>- "eight game match" is chosen. Would the "strongest human" do better in a >>>longer match? >>>- Are GM's that you know disclosing more information on how Junior and other >>>strong programs are playing today? Not looking for exact names and quotes here >>>as they might want to keep that discussion in private, just general >>>observations. >> >> >>I don't believe that a commercial program can win matchs of 8 games against >>SGMs in three years. > >I feel the same way about a home pc beating the top player in the world in three >years at standard 40/2. >That's why I was curious for more details. I wondered if Shay was referring to a >multi-processor machine or just an affordable home pc. Also I'm guessing that >he and Amir are fortunate in having many GM associations. Perhaps they know >something we don't? > >>I consider probable that the program wins the first match, but it will be >>difficult to continue winning, because SGMs(or GMs) will already be knowing the >>weaknesses of the program. >> >>Paulo Although it seems madness, I believe that if Deeper Blue continued playing matches against SGMs with certain frequency, they would also discover its weaknesses. The great challenge is not to build a group "computer+software" that wins some matches, but a group that stays winning matches with a great frequency. In my opinion, it is very difficult to believe that Shay and Amir get that in 3 years. Paulo
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