Author: Albert Silver
Date: 11:06:12 11/07/00
Go up one level in this thread
On November 06, 2000 at 15:46:04, Paulo Soares wrote:
>On November 06, 2000 at 01:55:10, Howard Exner wrote:
>
>>On November 05, 2000 at 20:45:31, Paulo Soares wrote:
>>
>>>On November 05, 2000 at 15:55:16, Howard Exner wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>Here is a cut and paste from ChessWire #57 (Kasparov Chess)
>>>>
>>>>Q: With the increasing power of computers, when do you think an unbeatable
>>>>computer chess program will appear?
>>>>
>>>>A: Shay Bushinsky answers:
>>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer
>>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a
>>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail
>>>>in an eight game match against the strongest human.
>>>>
>>>>I always take special note when a chess computer authority discloses their
>>>>projections on how chess computers will play in the future. Some follow up
>>>>questions ...
>>>>
>>>>- What sort of hardware would this be?
>>>>- Is the Junior team working on a massive multi-processor project?
>>>>- "eight game match" is chosen. Would the "strongest human" do better in a
>>>>longer match?
>>>>- Are GM's that you know disclosing more information on how Junior and other
>>>>strong programs are playing today? Not looking for exact names and quotes here
>>>>as they might want to keep that discussion in private, just general
>>>>observations.
>>>
>>>
>>>I don't believe that a commercial program can win matchs of 8 games against
>>>SGMs in three years.
>>
>>I feel the same way about a home pc beating the top player in the world in three
>>years at standard 40/2.
>>That's why I was curious for more details. I wondered if Shay was referring to a
>>multi-processor machine or just an affordable home pc. Also I'm guessing that
>>he and Amir are fortunate in having many GM associations. Perhaps they know
>>something we don't?
>>
>>>I consider probable that the program wins the first match, but it will be
>>>difficult to continue winning, because SGMs(or GMs) will already be knowing the
>>>weaknesses of the program.
>>>
>>>Paulo
>
>
>Although it seems madness, I believe that if Deeper Blue continued playing
>matches against SGMs with certain frequency, they would also discover its
>weaknesses.
>The great challenge is not to build a group "computer+software" that wins
>some matches, but a group that stays winning matches with a great frequency.
>In my opinion, it is very difficult to believe that Shay and Amir get that
>in 3 years.
>
>Paulo
Bof. Computer chess scientists have been reporting the ultimate demise of
humanity in chess for a long long time. No surprise there. It makes for good
headlines, but I wouldn't put much more weight to it than that. You have to more
than double the speed to get an extra ply (and let's also rememember Moore's
Law), and I am not convinced that a couple of plies are going to be a super-GM's
downfall. Of course, the quality of programs improves and has improved over the
years, but again, I have trouble believing 3 years will be the last nails in our
chess coffins. It'll come, but I don't think it will be quite so soon.
Albert
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