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Subject: Engine Design Must be Like Playing Poker

Author: Bob Durrett

Date: 18:43:17 11/17/00


How do humans get high performance ratings?  They win most of the time and do it
against strong opposition.

This must be true for chess-playing programs too.

High probability of getting the move right results in higher ratings, since
ratings are merely measures of average performance.  Ratings are everything.

It seems that the best approach to engine design surely must be a probabilistic
approach, more than anything else.  Add whatever features increase the
probabilities and discard the rest.

One adds "knowledge" until the performance drops.  One adds "speed" till the
performance drops.  And many innovations are added, but thrown out if the
performance drops.  But performance must be measured in probabilistic terms
inasmuch as very high probability of winning against strong opposition is "good
enough."

So, in the final analysis, isn't that really the way the top programs are
produced?

They are tested, tested again, and then tested ten more times.  Why?  So that
they will get the right answer most of the time, at least more often than the
competition.

Any computations which do not "earn their salt" are discarded.  If they take up
too much computer resources too often then they are bad.

Developing the very best programs must be like playing a game of poker.  You try
to win most of the time, and if you do, you go home rich.

I doubt that the top programs are intentionally designed to meet any idealistic
goals, like "being knowledge based" or "being deep searchers."  The only
idealism seems to be to up the rating.

Incidentally, maybe "going home rich" is the really best, practical, criteria
for engine design.  If you can sell a million copies of a poorly-performing
program, then you "win."




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