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Subject: Re: Evaluation Accuracy

Author: Daniel Kang

Date: 14:57:51 11/18/00

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Hi there!

On November 18, 2000 at 06:03:39, Graham Laight wrote:

>IMHO, a truly accurate evaluation of a position would yield one of the following
>3 ordinal values:
>
>Win
>Draw
>Lose

Wouldn't it be even better if it gave the expected value of a match? Since, in
practice, chess is a game of incomplete information (at this point, chess is
solvable only in theory), isn't it better to judge a position by the possible
outcomes and how likely each outcome is, rather than its absolute theoretical
value, which neither the program or its opponent can be expected to compute?

I've been thinking of this evaluation idea for a while. It seemed to me that
many strategic errors made by computer programs can be attributed to their
inability to compare positions that are wildly different. Obviously, being up by
two pawns is different in a wildly tactical warfare than it is in a quiet
endgame. It's been a while since I looked into the state-of-the-art of chess
programming, so I might be a bit off, but it doesn't seem to me that most
programs are anywhere near accurate in adjusting for these differences well.

Dan.




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