Author: James Swafford
Date: 18:54:01 11/19/00
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On November 19, 2000 at 20:46:48, stuart taylor wrote: >We are indeed seeing the new upcoming generation of chess programs (ready for >2001) losing many games to the outgoing generation (2000). > And during the past year, we have often seen, even many games sometimes being >won by the 1999 program aginst a 2000 one. > But normally the newer generation wins slightly more. Maybe that is largely >because they were tested over and over again, to make sure of that, before they >were ever released. > But how about testing 2001 programs against 1999 ones. Can we be sure that >2001 would win a vast majority, or even more important, atleast, never be >convincingly beaten, even if it has to lose the occasional game (against a 1999 >version)? > Hiarcs, by the way, as far as I understand, is a 1998 program. 7.0, 7.01, and >7.32 are the exact same program, and it still holds its own quite well today (it >would even be compatible with 2001), but it's getting on the lower end, whereas >in 1998 it was on the top of many rating lists. > But how is this exactly? and with 1999 in general? >Maybe Hiarcs 7.** will not be rendered helpless, even by the top programs in >2005! >S.Taylor If I understand you correctly, you're saying something like: A=2000 program beats 1999 program B=2001 program beats 2000 program C=2001 program beats 1999 program P(A) > .5 [probability that 2000 beats 1999 > 50%] P(B) > .5 What about P(C | B)? [probability of C given B] My gut feeling (and my math) tells me that, more often that not, 2001 programs will beat 1999 programs. :-) -- James
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