Author: Graham Laight
Date: 16:25:23 11/20/00
Go up one level in this thread
The method I'm going to use is extrapolation. The graph below is based on
guesswork by me - but maybe, between us, we can study the results of competitons
at different levels, and produce a more accurate version.
Chess Results v Player Strength V1.0
====================================
| #
| #
R | #
e | #
s |~~~~ #
u |^^^ ~~~~ #
l | ^^^^^^^ ~~~~~ #
t | ^^^^ ~~#~~~~~
| # ^^^^^ ~~~~~
| # ^^^^^^ ~~~~~
| # ^^^^^^ ~~~~~~~
|## ^^^^^^^^^^^
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1000 1500 2000 2500 2800
Elo Rating
# = draw
~ = white win
^ = black win
Conclusion: chess is ultimately a draw with best play by both sides.
Actually, although I think the answer we get by this method has a (much) better
than 50% chance of being correct, I have to admit that it's not a 100% certainty
that the answer will turn out to be right.
-g
On November 20, 2000 at 13:22:58, Bo Persson wrote:
>It just struck me, that there are also already some results available. For
>positions with a very small number of pieces, the tablebases have the evaluation
>of the positions.
>
>Also just realized that there will only be *one* 32-man tablebase file for each
>side. The KQRRBBNNPPPPPPPPkqrrbbnnpppppppp.nbw will probably be *extremely*
>large, but also contain the starting position...
>
>
>Will it be
>
>1. e4 resign
>
>or
>1. e4 offer draw
>
>??
>
>
>Bo Persson
>bop@malmo.mail.telia.com
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