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Subject: Re: GM John v/d Wiel vs Rebel prediction statistic

Author: Uri Blass

Date: 11:27:16 12/02/00

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On December 02, 2000 at 11:31:09, Ed Schröder wrote:

>On December 02, 2000 at 09:02:00, Chessfun wrote:
>
>>On December 02, 2000 at 08:49:29, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>
>>>The correct URL is:
>>>
>>>http://www.rebel.nl/rebwiel.htm
>>>
>>>
>>>On December 02, 2000 at 08:47:41, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>
>>>>So far received 90 votes for the match prediction GM v/d Wiel vs Rebel:
>>>>
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  0 - 6       2      2.2%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  ½ - 5½      0      0.0%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  1 - 5       0      0.0%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 1½ - 4½      5      5.6%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  2 - 4      16     17.8%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 2½ - 3½     12     13.3%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  3 - 3      18     20.0%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 3½ - 2½     20     22.2%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  4 - 2       9     10.0%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 4½ - 1½      5      5.6%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  5 - 1       0      0.0%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 5½ - ½       1      1.1%
>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  6 - 0       2      2.2%
>>>>
>>>>Number of predictions so far :  90
>>>>
>>>>GM John v/d Wiel will win    :  41.1%
>>>>The match will end in a draw :  20.0%
>>>>Rebel will win the match     :  38.9%
>>>>
>>>>Please subscribe your opinion to:
>>>>
>>>>http://rebel.nl/rebwiel.htm
>>>>
>>>>Added are a few small prizes for those who predict correct.
>>>>
>>>>Kind regards,
>>>>
>>>>Ed Schroder
>>
>>
>>Can I ask what kind of payment incentive does VD Wiel get
>>for winning 1) The match?, 2) Each game?
>>
>>I just want to find out what type of incentive exists for
>>him to try to win say game 6 if he is up 3-1/2 - 1-1/2.
>>
>>Sarah.
>
>I am not sure if this free information. I will have to ask the
>organizer first.
>
>Ed

I think that this is important information for the prediction.

I expect John v/d Wiel to prepare better if there is more money to earn from
scoring more points.

I hope that the payment is based on the principle that the money is proportional
to the number of points that he get(He may get also money for playing).

If he gets also money from winning the match than he has a reason not to try to
do his best.

He may try to draw if he leads 3-1 or 3-2 even if he has better chances.
He also may try to win without objective basis if the result is 2.5-2.5 assuming
that the difference in money between 3-3 and winning 3.5-2.5 is not the same as
the difference between 3-3 and losing 3.5-2.5.
I do not want it to happen.

I hope that the payement is something like this:

1000$ for 0 points
2000$ for 0.5 points
3000$ for 1 points
4000$ for 1.5 points
5000$ for 2 points
6000$ for 2.5 points
7000$ for 3 points
8000$ for 3.5 points
9000$ for 4 points
10000$ for 4.5 points
11000$ for 5 points
12000$ for 5.5 points
13000$ for 6 points.

Uri



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