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Subject: Re: GM John v/d Wiel vs Rebel prediction statistic

Author: Chessfun

Date: 12:27:47 12/02/00

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On December 02, 2000 at 14:27:16, Uri Blass wrote:

>On December 02, 2000 at 11:31:09, Ed Schröder wrote:
>
>>On December 02, 2000 at 09:02:00, Chessfun wrote:
>>
>>>On December 02, 2000 at 08:49:29, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>
>>>>The correct URL is:
>>>>
>>>>http://www.rebel.nl/rebwiel.htm
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>On December 02, 2000 at 08:47:41, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>So far received 90 votes for the match prediction GM v/d Wiel vs Rebel:
>>>>>
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  0 - 6       2      2.2%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  ½ - 5½      0      0.0%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  1 - 5       0      0.0%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 1½ - 4½      5      5.6%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  2 - 4      16     17.8%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 2½ - 3½     12     13.3%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  3 - 3      18     20.0%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 3½ - 2½     20     22.2%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  4 - 2       9     10.0%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 4½ - 1½      5      5.6%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  5 - 1       0      0.0%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel 5½ - ½       1      1.1%
>>>>>John v/d Wiel versus Rebel  6 - 0       2      2.2%
>>>>>
>>>>>Number of predictions so far :  90
>>>>>
>>>>>GM John v/d Wiel will win    :  41.1%
>>>>>The match will end in a draw :  20.0%
>>>>>Rebel will win the match     :  38.9%
>>>>>
>>>>>Please subscribe your opinion to:
>>>>>
>>>>>http://rebel.nl/rebwiel.htm
>>>>>
>>>>>Added are a few small prizes for those who predict correct.
>>>>>
>>>>>Kind regards,
>>>>>
>>>>>Ed Schroder
>>>
>>>
>>>Can I ask what kind of payment incentive does VD Wiel get
>>>for winning 1) The match?, 2) Each game?
>>>
>>>I just want to find out what type of incentive exists for
>>>him to try to win say game 6 if he is up 3-1/2 - 1-1/2.
>>>
>>>Sarah.
>>
>>I am not sure if this free information. I will have to ask the
>>organizer first.
>>
>>Ed
>
>I think that this is important information for the prediction.
>
>I expect John v/d Wiel to prepare better if there is more money to earn from
>scoring more points.
>
>I hope that the payment is based on the principle that the money is proportional
>to the number of points that he get(He may get also money for playing).
>
>If he gets also money from winning the match than he has a reason not to try to
>do his best.
>
>He may try to draw if he leads 3-1 or 3-2 even if he has better chances.
>He also may try to win without objective basis if the result is 2.5-2.5 assuming
>that the difference in money between 3-3 and winning 3.5-2.5 is not the same as
>the difference between 3-3 and losing 3.5-2.5.
>I do not want it to happen.
>
>I hope that the payement is something like this:
>
>1000$ for 0 points
>2000$ for 0.5 points
>3000$ for 1 points
>4000$ for 1.5 points
>5000$ for 2 points
>6000$ for 2.5 points
>7000$ for 3 points
>8000$ for 3.5 points
>9000$ for 4 points
>10000$ for 4.5 points
>11000$ for 5 points
>12000$ for 5.5 points
>13000$ for 6 points.
>
>Uri

Pretty much along the lines of what I was thinking.
I figured I'd wait till I heard that before guessing the score.
Without incentive I have visions of a GM lead going on cruise control.

Sarah.





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