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Subject: CM8000 position evaluations, Plus Minus Scores (repeat)

Author: William Penn

Date: 17:44:17 12/09/00


(My prior post didn't display the Plus and Minus symbols correctly in the text,
for unknown reasons, thus this repeat...)

CM8000 position evaluations, Plus Minus Scores (repeat)

The position on the chessboard can be scored as either plus or minus depending
on which side has the advantage.  Plus values favor white, and the larger the
value the more favorable for white.  Minus values favor black, and the more
negative the number the more favorable for black.  This is an absolute protocol
to express the current status of the game, and has nothing to do with which side
is on the move.  Any variations from this widely understood protocol should be
carefully explained, or confusion is likely to result.

I have observed a related problem with CM8000 more than once.  Simply, you can
ask a custom personality to analyze a position for you, and it will yield
certain results.  Then you should be able to confirm those results by making
each possible move from the position, rather than letting the software do the
iteration of possible moves.  That should usually give you approximately the
same results at one less ply.  The problem with CM8000 is that the signs of the
resulting scores are apparently wrong, sometimes.  Instead of plus they are
minus, and vice versa.  CM6000 got it right.  CM8000 gets it wrong.  Here's an
example...

Position after 1.Nf3 d5 2.d4 Nf6 3.c4 c6 4.Qc2 dxc4 5.Qxc4 Bf5 6.g3 e6 7.Bg2
Nbd7 8.Nc3 Be7 9.0-0 0-0

BR  --  --  BQ  --  BR  BK  --
BP  BP  --  BN  BB  BP  BP  BP
--  --  BP  --  BP  BN  --  --
--  --  --  --  --  BB  --  --
--  --  WQ  WP  --  --  --  --
--  --  WN  --  --  WN  WP  --
WP  WP  --  --  WP  WP  WB  WP
WR  --  WB  --  --  WR  WK  --

This is a well known position and white has several possible continuations, the
most popular being 10.e3.  Let's analyze it with Shep's CM6666 Deep and
Chessmaster 6000 software, and compare that with CM8666 Deep and Chessmaster
8000 software.  They give very similar results as you can see below.  Variations
in scores of 0.20 or less are fairly insignificant.

  after 9...0-0           after 9...0-0
CM6666 Deep (CM6K)      CM8666 Deep (CM8K)
Depth Score Moves       Depth Score Moves
01/09  0.10  Re1          9   0.13  Re1
01/10  0.21  Re1         10   0.24  Re1
01/11  0.07  Re1         11   0.14  Re1
01/12  0.10  Re1         12   0.16  Re1
01/13  0.03  Re1         13   0.15  Re1

As you can see above, both programs think 10.Re1 is the best move at these ply
levels. Neither finds the popular move 10.e3.  Since neither program reports any
information about 10.e3, the only way we can investigate 10.e3 is to make the
move and see what scores result (see below):

  after 10.e3             after 10.e3
CM6666 Deep (CM6K)      CM8666 Deep (CM8K)
Depth  Score  Moves     Depth Score Moves
01/09  -0.52  Ne4         9   0.54  Qc7
01/10  -0.41  Ne4        10   0.33  Qc7
01/10  -0.47  Rc8        10   0.42  Qa5
01/11  -0.39  Rc8        10   0.46  c5
01/12  -0.29  Rc8        10   0.50  Rc8
01/12  -0.36  Qc7        11   0.44  Rc8
01/12  -0.43  Ne4        12   0.39  Rc8
01/12  -0.46  b5         12   0.46  Ne4
01/13  -0.29  b5         13   0.42  Ne4

We see (above) that there are many possible moves with similar scores.  Also we
note that the CM6000 scores are all negative, but the CM8000 scores are all
positive.  In the series of moves at 01/10 and at 01/12 depths with CM6000, the
changes are towards more negative scores.  That seems proper because we are
searching for the best black move.  (better black positions are more negative)
In contrast the trend of scores with CM8000 in the series at 10 and 12 depths is
towards more positive values.  That appears to be in the wrong direction when
trying to find the best black move.  The reason is probably that CM8000 fails to
put the minus sign on the moves here after 10.e3.  They should probably all be
negative values, not positive values, analogous to the results with CM6000.

It's OK if CM8000 wants to use a special protocol, provided it is carefully
explained in the documentation available to users.  Presumably that's the reason
here, rather than a bug, but I don't know any easy way to distinguish between
those two possibilities.  Suffice to say that at this point, I'm not 100%
confident about CM8000's analysis, because I can apparently never know with
certainty whether a score is really plus or minus.  I haven't noticed a problem
(so far) when the scores are more than +1.00 or less than -1.00, but there is
some apparent confusion when they are within that range.  At least, I am
confused!?

I understand that CM8000 analyzes positions differently than CM6000.  The
listing of moves in the Think Lines window isn't as neatly ordered and easy to
understand as CM6000.  The trends don't always go in the direction expected.  It
may find a good move, then a blunder, then a good move, then another blunder,
etc., and only the last move found has significance -- prior moves being
"outdated" and their scores now incorrect.  I'm told that is normal for CM8000.
However I have seen the above problem with the plus/minus signs too often, so I
believe there may be a genuine problem in that regard.
WP



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