Author: Jason Williamson
Date: 05:01:18 12/14/00
Go up one level in this thread
On December 14, 2000 at 05:11:53, David Rasmussen wrote: >On December 13, 2000 at 19:26:20, Robin Smith wrote: > >>On December 13, 2000 at 13:33:55, Bruce Moreland wrote: >> >>>On December 13, 2000 at 12:50:16, walter irvin wrote: >>> >>>>would most people considder chess to be solved if a computer had an oppening >>>>database that always left the computer +2.50 when it was out of book and not >>>>ever permitting the blocking of position??? with best play does anyone believe >>>>that black does not lose ?? also if 100% represents the total number of legal >>>>positions then what % make up positions that could SAFELY be reached vs strong >>>>opposition ???(3% perhaps)and if that is the case then should that not be the >>>>positions to solve??? >>> >>>There is no guarantee that this would solve chess, but the odds would be high >>>that there is at least one forced win if white can force a +2.5 computer >>>evaluation from the root. >> >>The likelyhood of chess being a win for white, with perfect play from both >>sides, is very low. This is born out by computer-computer games, where the draw >>percentage increases as search depth/time increases and also by the fact that >>super GM vs. super GM games have a much higher draw rate than games by lower >>rated players. In both cases as playing strength increases the percentage of >>draws also increases. Strong evidence that chess is a draw. Also, in decisive >>games one almost invariably finds that one of the players either made a mistake >>or mistakes, or at the very least took unneccesary risks. And most strong >>chesspayers believe a perfectly played game should end in a draw. When Kasparov >>was once asked why he did not win a particular game he replied "Chess is a draw, >>no?". >> >>So, there will NEVER be any computer opening database, no matter how big, where >>computers (playing white) think the 1st position out of book is always at least >>+2.50 for the computer .... unless the computer has a seriously flawed >>evaluation, in which case it will hardly mean chess is solved. >> >>Robin Smith > >Many twoplayer zerosum games with perfect information have game trees that are >dominated by draws close to the winning lines. Connect 4 is a win for white with >best play, but with slightly less perfect play, it's a draw. There are many more >draws, than wins. So unless players play perfect, in practice, there is a 55% >win rate for white, as in chess. > >You have to remember that there may, in theory, only be 1 perfectly winning line >for white, to make chess a win for white. If this is the case, and people >haven't found this line, you're not going to see this in practical results. > >My personal belief is that chess is a win for white. Don't you see, its a win for black! White is in Zugzwang on move one! ;) JW
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