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Subject: Re: It comes from statistics.....

Author: Fernando Villegas

Date: 16:36:04 12/17/00

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Hi Cristophe:
Maybe what makes difficult for someone to believe -but I believe it - that
current crop is around 800 points stronger than old crop is how much "great" the
figure 800 seems to be, as an absolute quantity, not taking into account that is
 an statistically produced figure. But people forgets thaty in "absolute" terms
of chess capabilities it is enough that a program be just better to produce
sistematic wins that, at last, translate in enormous score difference. A simple
example for unbelievers: if in my teens I had runned several 100 meters races
with the world champ of that far age, my current absolute difference in speed
with him was maybe "just" a couple of despicable seconds, but that had been
enough for me to lose every race. So his "elo" would had been 1000 points or
more better than mine. I have tested that precisely with sargon III, as you may
remember, some time ago. I too believed, in that time, that there was not great
difference. In fact, if you just see how Sargon handle well a lot of things, you
just think progress has been discrete, but then it if you continue looking what
happens, you realize that is enough he does not so well in endings or so to lose
every game with any top current program. And that is equal to maybe that awful
800 points.
Fernando



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