Author: Severi Salminen
Date: 10:29:20 12/19/00
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>---------------------------------------------- >Reliability of chess matches (confidence: 80%) > > 10 games: 14.0% (105 pts) > 20 games: 11.0% ( 77 pts) > 30 games: 9.0% ( 63 pts) > 40 games: 8.0% ( 56 pts) > 50 games: 7.0% ( 49 pts) >100 games: 5.0% ( 35 pts) >200 games: 3.5% ( 25 pts) >400 games: 2.5% ( 18 pts) >600 games: 2.2% ( 15 pts) >---------------------------------------------- > Thanks, very clarifying! I hope everyone here would get familiar with these numbers. Could you compile a list with maybe 3-5 reliability levels (80%, 90%, 95%, 99% and 99,5%...) and send it to whoever is the webmaster of CCC. I think it would be a blessing (or probably not) for the chess community. It would definitely not end these posts I mentioned, but people would know how to interpret them. >For 20 games, a 61% winning percentage is enough, with 80% confidence. > >That means that a result of 12.5-7.5 is already significant, with 80% >confidence. Ok. But I think that 80% is not enough. Usually 95% is considered "statistically quite significant" and 99,5% "very significant" (or similar) in statistics. But true, 20-0 tells a lot. Again, learning must be taken in consideration. Severi
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