Author: Christophe Theron
Date: 10:55:48 12/19/00
Go up one level in this thread
On December 19, 2000 at 13:29:20, Severi Salminen wrote:
>>----------------------------------------------
>>Reliability of chess matches (confidence: 80%)
>>
>> 10 games: 14.0% (105 pts)
>> 20 games: 11.0% ( 77 pts)
>> 30 games: 9.0% ( 63 pts)
>> 40 games: 8.0% ( 56 pts)
>> 50 games: 7.0% ( 49 pts)
>>100 games: 5.0% ( 35 pts)
>>200 games: 3.5% ( 25 pts)
>>400 games: 2.5% ( 18 pts)
>>600 games: 2.2% ( 15 pts)
>>----------------------------------------------
>>
>
>Thanks, very clarifying! I hope everyone here would get familiar with these
>numbers. Could you compile a list with maybe 3-5 reliability levels (80%, 90%,
>95%, 99% and 99,5%...) and send it to whoever is the webmaster of CCC. I think
>it would be a blessing (or probably not) for the chess community. It would
>definitely not end these posts I mentioned, but people would know how to
>interpret them.
Actually I would really like that other people more used to statistics then me
check it and produce the tables for other confidence percentages.
I'm almost sure Dann or Uri could do it. I have also seen several other people
posting very clear and accurate statistical stuffs here, I wish they had a look
at my table.
>>For 20 games, a 61% winning percentage is enough, with 80% confidence.
>>
>>That means that a result of 12.5-7.5 is already significant, with 80%
>>confidence.
>
>Ok. But I think that 80% is not enough. Usually 95% is considered "statistically
>quite significant" and 99,5% "very significant" (or similar) in statistics. But
>true, 20-0 tells a lot. Again, learning must be taken in consideration.
The problem is the number of games needed to produce more accurate results. A
compromise must be found, or else the number of games becomes totally
unrealistic. People are not ready to play 200 games, so imagine if you ask them
to play 800 games AT LEAST!
Christophe
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