Author: Leen Ammeraal
Date: 12:13:56 12/21/00
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On December 20, 2000 at 12:45:39, Christophe Theron wrote: > .... > >Your rule of stopping when you get one of the "significant" results you have >listed says approximately the same thing as my "reliability of matches" table. > >The main point is that, for a given confidence, you can compute a table giving >the smallest winning percentage depending of number of games played which is >enough to say that the match is significant (once again: within the chosen >confidence level). > >This table should definitely be published in the CCC resource center. > >The problem is that computing this table is not easy, at least for me. You have >to know the relevant formulas, and I actually do not know them. > >The table I have given in this thread has been computed by numerical simulation, >with a program that I have written myself. Each line of the table has been >computed, IIRC, with 10000 simulated occurences of the given matches. The >confidence level and margin of errors have been found by trial-and-error, that's >why there are accurate to the first decimal only. And also, I'm not 100% sure >that the random number generator I have used is reliable enough for this kind of >experiment. > >Even this dirty computed table is already extremely useful for me. First of all >I have learned a lot about the reliability of matches while I was building it. > ... > > > Christophe Is this table of yours somewhere available online? I missed it and I am very much interested in it. Leen Ammeraal
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