Author: walter irvin
Date: 08:34:42 12/23/00
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On December 22, 2000 at 13:39:27, Uri Blass wrote: >On December 22, 2000 at 11:49:22, Tania Devora wrote: > >> >>How many positions or moves exist in chess? >> >> >>I mean all the possible moves!, >>good moves, stupid moves like. 1.h4 1.a5. 2.Th3 2.a4 Ta3 3.Ta6 3.Tg3 4.Ta6 Th3 >>etc etc........ >> >>I think that the number will be verrryyyy HUUGEE!! I think that any machine or >>computer in the future could see all the possibilities in chess. >> >>What do you think? Anybody have an idea? of how many possibilities exist in the >>chess game? > > >The number of possible games including stupid moves is very big and no computer >in the future will calculate it but you do not need to calculate all the >possible games in order to solve chess. > >For example you do not need to calculate both 1.e4 c5 2.c4 and 1.c4 c5 2.e4 >inspite of the fact that the games are different. > >The more interesting question for solving chess is the number of legal >positions. >The number of legal positions is clearly smaller and there is less than 10^50 >legal positions(I guess there are about 10^40 positions(1 with 40 0's)). > >I do not expect a computer in the next 100 years to have memory of 10^50 or even >10^40 positions but it may be possible to solve chess with less positions >because it is possible to prune illogical moves and get less positions. > >An example to illogical moves that it is possible to prune is 1.e4 Nf6 2.Qh5 > >I am sure that 2.Qh5 is losing and chess programs have no problem to win with >black so programs do not need to have knowledge about the right move after 1.e4 >Nf6 2.Qh5 and search is enough. > >The number of possible positions when you prune moves that are illogical may be >smaller and computers may solve chess in the future but the number is still too >big for the computers of today and I do not expect computers to solve chess in >the next 50 years. > >Uri you may be correct that no computer will solve chess in next 50 years , but you could be wrong .i agree with everything you said in your post , i just want to take it 1 step further .there could be more prunning .a strong program will win a very large % of games where it is up + 2.5 .so that could be used as a bench mark .also there is a large number of legel positions that while they are close in score they could not be safely reached vs strong opposition .so if you eliminated duplicated moves,moves with scores over 2.5 ,positions that can not be safely reached .you might actually have a number that even todays computers have a shot at . walter irvin
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